------------------------------------------------------------------------------- log: C:\stata\moose\pprobit.log log type: text opened on: 2 Oct 2003, 16:56:51 . use C:\stata\moose\raw.dta . . * Generate additional variables * . . sort country time . gen year = int(time/100) . gen month = int(time-year*100) . gen day = 1 . gen etime = mdy(month, day, year) . format etime %dn/CY . drop year month day . gen lm = ln(m) (8 missing values generated) . gen ly = ln(y) (956 missing values generated) . gen lpolrisk = ln(polrisk) (50 missing values generated) . gen lpolrisklag1 = lpolrisk[_n-1] (51 missing values generated) . gen lpolrisklag2 = lpolrisk[_n-2] (52 missing values generated) . gen dpolrisk = lpolrisk - lpolrisk[_n-1] (75 missing values generated) . gen di = i - i[_n-1] (5 missing values generated) . gen difor = ifor - ifor[_n-1] (1 missing value generated) . gen dm = lm - lm[_n-1] (10 missing values generated) . gen dy = ly - ly[_n-1] (967 missing values generated) . drop if time==199501 (25 observations deleted) . . * Provide descriptive statistics * . . sum de i ifor lm ly Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- de | 2350 .6859562 3.122676 -18.78147 45.64358 i | 2348 13.70197 12.2046 .1 67 ifor | 2350 4.40234 1.427369 .83 6 lm | 2342 8.470215 2.388665 3.679427 13.89747 ly | 1406 8.989977 2.808381 4.558498 13.95498 . sort regime . by regime: sum de i ifor lm ly _______________________________________________________________________________ -> regime = 0 Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- de | 2150 .6046125 2.861446 -18.78147 45.64358 i | 2149 13.79339 12.50765 .1 67 ifor | 2150 4.396637 1.434335 .83 6 lm | 2143 8.406127 2.387675 3.679427 13.82734 ly | 1301 8.918022 2.82839 4.558498 13.95498 _______________________________________________________________________________ -> regime = 1 Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- de | 200 1.560401 5.083453 -14.75669 31.84359 i | 199 12.71473 8.209134 .5 60 ifor | 200 4.46365 1.352115 .83 6 lm | 199 9.160369 2.294024 4.296545 13.89747 ly | 105 9.881535 2.384481 4.578826 13.80027 . corr de i ifor lm ly if regime==1 (obs=103) | de i ifor lm ly -------------+--------------------------------------------- de | 1.0000 i | 0.2166 1.0000 ifor | 0.1332 0.2831 1.0000 lm | 0.3523 0.2799 -0.0979 1.0000 ly | 0.0460 -0.0230 -0.0573 0.5615 1.0000 . corr de i ifor lm ly if regime==0 (obs=1293) | de i ifor lm ly -------------+--------------------------------------------- de | 1.0000 i | 0.2574 1.0000 ifor | 0.0949 0.0617 1.0000 lm | -0.0261 0.0714 -0.0662 1.0000 ly | 0.0406 0.0084 -0.0419 0.3345 1.0000 . sort dev . by dev: sum de i ifor lm ly _______________________________________________________________________________ -> dev = 0 Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- de | 658 .2742259 2.642228 -13.93715 12.06604 i | 657 5.559067 3.488874 .1 16.949 ifor | 658 4.40234 1.428151 .83 6 lm | 650 7.701006 2.38156 4.775866 12.02742 ly | 658 8.45019 2.885284 5.1752 13.17373 _______________________________________________________________________________ -> dev = 1 Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max -------------+----------------------------------------------------- de | 1692 .8460736 3.277404 -18.78147 45.64358 i | 1691 16.86571 12.89733 .38 67 ifor | 1692 4.40234 1.427487 .83 6 lm | 1692 8.765715 2.325359 3.679427 13.89747 ly | 748 9.464816 2.65142 4.558498 13.95498 . preserve . keep if (country==11) (2256 observations deleted) . graph de polrisk etime, t1("Exchange Rate, Political Risk & Regime Switches, > Japan") b2("Time") l1("% Change Exchange Rate") r1("Political Risk") xlab(127 > 85,13149,13515,13880,14245,14610,14976,15341,15707) ylab(-15,-5,5,15,25,35) s > ymbol(.o) c(ll) sort xline (12874,12904,14153,14245) rescale saving (figure1a > , replace) . restore . preserve . keep if (country==12) (2256 observations deleted) . graph de polrisk etime, t1("Exchange Rate, Political Risk & Regime Switches, > Korea") b2("Time") l1("% Change Exchange Rate") r1("Political Risk") xlab(127 > 85,13149,13515,13880,14245,14610,14976,15341,15707) ylab(-15,-5,5,15,25,35) s > ymbol(.o) c(ll) sort xline(13788,14245) rescale saving (figure1b, replace) . restore . preserve . keep if (country==19) (2256 observations deleted) . graph de polrisk etime, t1("Exchange Rate, Political Risk & Regime Switches, > Sierra Leone") b2("Time") l1("% Change Exchange Rate") r1("Political Risk") x > lab(12785,13149,13515,13880,14245,14610,14976,15341,15707) ylab(-15,-5,5,15,2 > 5,35) symbol(.o) c(ll) sort xline(12935,12996,13027,13088,13574,13635,13727,1 > 3849,13880,13939,14396,14518,14549,14610,14701,14762,14915,15066,15310,15341, > 15461,15522) rescale saving (figure1c, replace) . restore . . * Regression analysis * . . * Benchmark regressions * . . * Columns (BI) & (BII) * . preserve . drop if dy==0 (942 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm dy, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchang > eable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 455 Group variable: country Number of groups = 16 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 11 Family: binomial avg = 28.4 Correlation: exchangeable max = 31 Wald chi2(5) = 13.25 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0212 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.9467561 1.092378 -0.87 0.386 -3.087778 1.194266 di | .0466098 .0428261 1.09 0.276 -.0373279 .1305475 difor | .0435851 .3258142 0.13 0.894 -.594999 .6821692 dm | -.3060143 1.60046 -0.19 0.848 -3.442859 2.83083 dy | -1.132702 .5531449 -2.05 0.041 -2.216846 -.0485581 _cons | 2.671986 4.777252 0.56 0.576 -6.691255 12.03523 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 2313 Group variable: country Number of groups = 25 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 85 Family: binomial avg = 92.5 Correlation: exchangeable max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 5.76 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.2177 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.5010774 .2773197 -1.81 0.071 -1.044614 .0424591 di | .005487 .0267905 0.20 0.838 -.0470214 .0579954 difor | -.1182465 .1962949 -0.60 0.547 -.5029773 .2664844 dm | -.1773768 .7243095 -0.24 0.807 -1.596997 1.242244 _cons | .7248302 1.200754 0.60 0.546 -1.628605 3.078266 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . * Columns (BIII) & (BIV) * . preserve . drop if dy==0 (942 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm dy, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(indep) > i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 455 Group variable: country Number of groups = 16 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 11 Family: binomial avg = 28.4 Correlation: independent max = 31 Wald chi2(5) = 38.44 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Pearson chi2(455): 449.00 Deviance = 242.44 Dispersion (Pearson): .9868057 Dispersion = .5328368 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.7143646 1.065687 -0.67 0.503 -2.803073 1.374344 di | .0203786 .0574029 0.36 0.723 -.0921291 .1328863 difor | .0770222 .3217291 0.24 0.811 -.5535553 .7075997 dm | -1.495298 1.897694 -0.79 0.431 -5.21471 2.224114 dy | -1.200208 .5228667 -2.30 0.022 -2.225007 -.1754077 _cons | 1.659497 4.660379 0.36 0.722 -7.474678 10.79367 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(indep) i(c > ountry) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 2313 Group variable: country Number of groups = 25 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 85 Family: binomial avg = 92.5 Correlation: independent max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 15.61 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0036 Pearson chi2(2313): 2308.54 Deviance = 1313.89 Dispersion (Pearson): .9980697 Dispersion = .5680446 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -1.042101 .2991302 -3.48 0.000 -1.628385 -.4558164 di | .0034913 .0242306 0.14 0.885 -.0439998 .0509823 difor | -.1396856 .1987855 -0.70 0.482 -.5292981 .2499268 dm | -.5338265 .7829579 -0.68 0.495 -2.068396 1.000743 _cons | 2.993311 1.261626 2.37 0.018 .5205685 5.466053 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . * Columns (BV),(BVI) & (BVII) * . . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) co > rr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 2288 Group variable: country Number of groups = 25 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 84 Family: binomial avg = 91.5 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(5) = 13.09 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0226 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -2.908564 1.161965 -2.50 0.012 -5.185974 -.6311538 lpolrisklag1 | 2.501046 1.28331 1.95 0.051 -.0141951 5.016288 di | .0089228 .0233206 0.38 0.702 -.0367846 .0546303 difor | -.1207676 .1999221 -0.60 0.546 -.5126077 .2710724 dm | -.2207376 .722866 -0.31 0.760 -1.637529 1.196054 _cons | .3327816 1.313146 0.25 0.800 -2.240938 2.906501 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 lpolrisklag2 di difor dm, fam(binomial) li > nk(probit) corr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 2263 Group variable: country Number of groups = 25 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 83 Family: binomial avg = 90.5 Correlation: exchangeable max = 91 Wald chi2(6) = 15.26 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0183 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -3.102487 1.086101 -2.86 0.004 -5.231206 -.9737684 lpolrisklag1 | 1.242397 1.825802 0.68 0.496 -2.336109 4.820903 lpolrisklag2 | 1.468984 1.56396 0.94 0.348 -1.596322 4.53429 di | .0120433 .0246859 0.49 0.626 -.0363402 .0604268 difor | -.1334911 .2012885 -0.66 0.507 -.5280093 .2610271 dm | -.3250687 .7834579 -0.41 0.678 -1.860618 1.21048 _cons | .2587145 1.452149 0.18 0.859 -2.587444 3.104873 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime dpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 2288 Group variable: country Number of groups = 25 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 84 Family: binomial avg = 91.5 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(4) = 4.43 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.3513 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- dpolrisk | -2.70741 1.307405 -2.07 0.038 -5.269877 -.144942 di | .0098139 .0246037 0.40 0.690 -.0384085 .0580364 difor | -.1041145 .2005873 -0.52 0.604 -.4972584 .2890293 dm | -.2125988 .7272458 -0.29 0.770 -1.637974 1.212777 _cons | -1.374379 .1233795 -11.14 0.000 -1.616199 -1.13256 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . . * Regressions for subsets of data * . . * Columns (DI),(DII),(DIII),(DIV) & (DV) * . . preserve . keep if dev==0 /* Developed countries */ (1692 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 641 Group variable: country Number of groups = 7 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 85 Family: binomial avg = 91.6 Correlation: exchangeable max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 272.00 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -3.55804 .5682551 -6.26 0.000 -4.6718 -2.444281 di | .0345771 .0742188 0.47 0.641 -.110889 .1800432 difor | -.7467923 .3825622 -1.95 0.051 -1.4966 .0030159 dm | 1.379377 1.358413 1.02 0.310 -1.283064 4.041818 _cons | 14.15816 2.363291 5.99 0.000 9.526193 18.79012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) co > rr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 634 Group variable: country Number of groups = 7 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 84 Family: binomial avg = 90.6 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(5) = 503.04 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -5.774077 .8813112 -6.55 0.000 -7.501415 -4.046739 lpolrisklag1 | 2.393336 1.195273 2.00 0.045 .0506446 4.736027 di | -.0322479 .0882345 -0.37 0.715 -.2051843 .1406886 difor | -.7600933 .3880829 -1.96 0.050 -1.520722 .0005352 dm | 1.247608 1.340576 0.93 0.352 -1.379872 3.875087 _cons | 13.37137 2.681581 4.99 0.000 8.115565 18.62717 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime dpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 634 Group variable: country Number of groups = 7 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 84 Family: binomial avg = 90.6 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(4) = 29.21 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- dpolrisk | -3.155999 1.372427 -2.30 0.021 -5.845907 -.4660912 di | -.0218317 .0883627 -0.25 0.805 -.1950193 .1513559 difor | -.5447711 .3009572 -1.81 0.070 -1.134636 .0450941 dm | 1.038553 1.44955 0.72 0.474 -1.802512 3.879618 _cons | -1.369737 .3087658 -4.44 0.000 -1.974907 -.7645675 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) corr(exchangeabl > e) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 641 Group variable: country Number of groups = 7 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 85 Family: binomial avg = 91.6 Correlation: exchangeable max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 91.12 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -6.546674 1.144462 -5.72 0.000 -8.789778 -4.30357 di | .0761069 .1156988 0.66 0.511 -.1506585 .3028723 difor | -1.369442 .6715051 -2.04 0.041 -2.685568 -.0533167 dm | 2.3904 2.000168 1.20 0.232 -1.529856 6.310657 _cons | 26.15489 4.670414 5.60 0.000 17.00104 35.30873 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) cor > r(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 634 Group variable: country Number of groups = 7 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 84 Family: binomial avg = 90.6 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(5) = 237.11 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -10.50308 1.282181 -8.19 0.000 -13.0161 -7.990047 lpolrisklag1 | 4.288234 1.852976 2.31 0.021 .6564675 7.92 di | -.0367254 .1533315 -0.24 0.811 -.3372496 .2637988 difor | -1.412432 .6975615 -2.02 0.043 -2.779628 -.0452369 dm | 2.24025 1.991753 1.12 0.261 -1.663514 6.144013 _cons | 24.68137 4.907204 5.03 0.000 15.06342 34.29931 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . . preserve . keep if dev==1 /* Developing countries */ (658 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1672 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 91 Family: binomial avg = 92.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 3.32 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.5056 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.4038381 .4040652 -1.00 0.318 -1.195791 .3881152 di | .0044835 .0298389 0.15 0.881 -.0539997 .0629668 difor | .0916916 .2104258 0.44 0.663 -.3207355 .5041187 dm | -.5457145 .852577 -0.64 0.522 -2.216735 1.125306 _cons | .280135 1.693566 0.17 0.869 -3.039193 3.599463 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) co > rr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1654 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 90 Family: binomial avg = 91.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(5) = 10.04 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0740 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -2.854536 1.393587 -2.05 0.041 -5.585917 -.1231558 lpolrisklag1 | 2.528238 1.576715 1.60 0.109 -.5620656 5.618542 di | .0095131 .0256791 0.37 0.711 -.0408169 .0598432 difor | .0952861 .2116142 0.45 0.653 -.31947 .5100422 dm | -.5742722 .8401576 -0.68 0.494 -2.220951 1.072406 _cons | -.036266 1.805571 -0.02 0.984 -3.57512 3.502588 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime dpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1654 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 90 Family: binomial avg = 91.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(4) = 6.00 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.1992 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- dpolrisk | -2.692374 1.528975 -1.76 0.078 -5.68911 .3043607 di | .0100623 .0257891 0.39 0.696 -.0404834 .0606079 difor | .1062503 .2142452 0.50 0.620 -.3136625 .5261632 dm | -.5508105 .8292783 -0.66 0.507 -2.176166 1.074545 _cons | -1.381467 .1270382 -10.87 0.000 -1.630457 -1.132477 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) corr(exchangeabl > e) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1672 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 91 Family: binomial avg = 92.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 93 Wald chi2(4) = 3.54 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.4720 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.8210706 .7496371 -1.10 0.273 -2.290332 .6481911 di | .0052364 .0593789 0.09 0.930 -.1111441 .1216168 difor | .1931007 .4268274 0.45 0.651 -.6434655 1.029667 dm | -1.057756 1.750906 -0.60 0.546 -4.489468 2.373957 _cons | .9807474 3.130862 0.31 0.754 -5.155629 7.117124 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) cor > r(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1654 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 90 Family: binomial avg = 91.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 92 Wald chi2(5) = 13.22 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0214 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -5.729265 2.673372 -2.14 0.032 -10.96898 -.489553 lpolrisklag1 | 5.131639 3.10603 1.65 0.099 -.9560673 11.21934 di | .0141728 .051158 0.28 0.782 -.0860951 .1144408 difor | .2030642 .4331222 0.47 0.639 -.6458397 1.051968 dm | -1.174354 1.713021 -0.69 0.493 -4.531813 2.183105 _cons | .0662444 3.382507 0.02 0.984 -6.563348 6.695837 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . . * Columns (CI),(CII),(CIII) & (CIV) * . . preserve . keep if time<199706 & dev==1 /* Pre-crisis developing countries */ (1846 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 486 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 27 Family: binomial avg = 27.0 Correlation: exchangeable max = 27 Wald chi2(4) = 8.46 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0761 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.6874122 .6140431 -1.12 0.263 -1.890915 .5160903 di | .0270298 .0724668 0.37 0.709 -.1150026 .1690622 difor | .7654594 2.387448 0.32 0.748 -3.913852 5.444771 dm | 1.006717 1.759671 0.57 0.567 -2.442176 4.455609 _cons | 1.380097 2.495303 0.55 0.580 -3.510607 6.270801 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) co > rr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 468 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 26 Family: binomial avg = 26.0 Correlation: exchangeable max = 26 Wald chi2(5) = 14.45 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0130 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | .9753837 2.098271 0.46 0.642 -3.137153 5.08792 lpolrisklag1 | -1.695604 1.735867 -0.98 0.329 -5.097841 1.706632 di | .0321706 .0678055 0.47 0.635 -.1007257 .165067 difor | .858212 2.414002 0.36 0.722 -3.873145 5.589569 dm | 1.005183 1.756776 0.57 0.567 -2.438035 4.4484 _cons | 1.531943 2.385652 0.64 0.521 -3.143849 6.207735 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime dpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 468 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 26 Family: binomial avg = 26.0 Correlation: exchangeable max = 26 Wald chi2(4) = 1.66 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.7972 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- dpolrisk | 1.598846 1.806146 0.89 0.376 -1.941136 5.138828 di | .0374663 .0604635 0.62 0.535 -.08104 .1559727 difor | .9062596 2.337411 0.39 0.698 -3.674982 5.487501 dm | 1.008494 1.665233 0.61 0.545 -2.255302 4.27229 _cons | -1.428602 .154869 -9.22 0.000 -1.73214 -1.125064 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) cor > r(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 468 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 26 Family: binomial avg = 26.0 Correlation: exchangeable max = 26 Wald chi2(5) = 21.22 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0007 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | 1.859103 3.834154 0.48 0.628 -5.6557 9.373907 lpolrisklag1 | -3.322348 3.132505 -1.06 0.289 -9.461944 2.817249 di | .0574185 .1308344 0.44 0.661 -.1990122 .3138493 difor | 2.040223 5.170362 0.39 0.693 -8.0935 12.17395 dm | 2.182672 3.40178 0.64 0.521 -4.484694 8.850039 _cons | 3.512712 4.388401 0.80 0.423 -5.088397 12.11382 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . . preserve . keep if time>=199706 & dev==1 /* Post-crisis developing countries */ (1162 observations deleted) . xtgee regime lpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1186 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 64 Family: binomial avg = 65.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 66 Wald chi2(4) = 4.64 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.3266 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -.5113437 .4556254 -1.12 0.262 -1.404353 .3816656 di | -.0035193 .0262557 -0.13 0.893 -.0549794 .0479409 difor | .1065607 .1888376 0.56 0.573 -.2635542 .4766757 dm | -1.42899 .9408525 -1.52 0.129 -3.273028 .4150466 _cons | .7484473 1.903843 0.39 0.694 -2.983017 4.479912 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) co > rr(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1186 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 64 Family: binomial avg = 65.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 66 Wald chi2(5) = 13.63 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0182 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -3.31258 1.880739 -1.76 0.078 -6.99876 .373601 lpolrisklag1 | 3.016318 2.200277 1.37 0.170 -1.296145 7.328781 di | .0013295 .0230455 0.06 0.954 -.0438388 .0464978 difor | .1024685 .1927878 0.53 0.595 -.2753887 .4803257 dm | -1.427759 .9389637 -1.52 0.128 -3.268094 .4125758 _cons | -.1483919 2.111365 -0.07 0.944 -4.286591 3.989807 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime dpolrisk di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(probit) corr(exchangeab > le) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1186 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: probit Obs per group: min = 64 Family: binomial avg = 65.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 66 Wald chi2(4) = 6.09 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.1925 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- dpolrisk | -3.18221 2.013045 -1.58 0.114 -7.127706 .7632868 di | .0015749 .023971 0.07 0.948 -.0454075 .0485573 difor | .1108449 .1964445 0.56 0.573 -.2741792 .495869 dm | -1.388905 .9382554 -1.48 0.139 -3.227852 .4500417 _cons | -1.373293 .1277465 -10.75 0.000 -1.623672 -1.122914 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . xtgee regime lpolrisk lpolrisklag1 di difor dm, fam(binomial) link(logit) cor > r(exchangeable) i(country) nolog robust GEE population-averaged model Number of obs = 1186 Group variable: country Number of groups = 18 Link: logit Obs per group: min = 64 Family: binomial avg = 65.9 Correlation: exchangeable max = 66 Wald chi2(5) = 17.46 Scale parameter: 1 Prob > chi2 = 0.0037 (standard errors adjusted for clustering on country) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Semi-robust regime | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- lpolrisk | -6.762729 3.577521 -1.89 0.059 -13.77454 .2490833 lpolrisklag1 | 6.347541 4.25385 1.49 0.136 -1.989852 14.68493 di | -.0026408 .0469752 -0.06 0.955 -.0947104 .0894288 difor | .2190994 .3985399 0.55 0.582 -.5620244 1.000223 dm | -2.957143 1.914343 -1.54 0.122 -6.709186 .7949006 _cons | -.6677743 4.113883 -0.16 0.871 -8.730836 7.395288 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . restore . . * Close * . drop _all . set more on . set mem 1m (1024k) . log close log: C:\stata\moose\pprobit.log log type: text closed on: 2 Oct 2003, 16:57:21 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------